Bloomington, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

752
FXUS63 KIND 270452
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1252 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues into early next week with additional days
  of greater than 100 degree heat indices likely, especially Monday
  through Wednesday

- Periodic showers and storms through the weekend with isolated
  flooding and strong winds

- More widespread thunderstorms expected for the middle of next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

No major changes needed to the forecast with this update. Rain and
thunderstorms are now confined primarily across our northern tier of
counties. The heaviest storms, near Muncie, have prompted issuance
of a Flash Flood Warning as reports of high water have come in along
with a measured rate of 3.75 inches per hour. Rain has ended in the
Muncie area, and will end across Randolph County in the next hour or
so. Additional storms are possible, especially across the north and
northwestern portions of the area. These locations are nearest to a
subtle boundary and vort max which may provide enough forcing to
over come nocturnal stabilization and allow for the formation of a
few updrafts. Widespread activity is not expected. Localized
flooding is the primary hazard overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Scattered convection had hit an earlier peak in coverage but has
dwindled down locally since 1730Z. One factor that appears to be
aiding this is a small area of subsidence first noted on the Day
Cloud Phase satellite imagery extending from the Indy metro
southwest back into Owen County. Despite the increased cu
coverage...18Z temperatures were again in the upper 80s and lower
90s with peak heat indices pushing the 105 degree level across the
southern half of the forecast area.

The stagnant pattern of late continues this afternoon and will do so
through the short term. A remnant outflow boundary from earlier
served as one of the initial focal points for convective development
in addition to the unstable airmass present. As mentioned above
however...subtle subsidence in the wake of a more pronounced area of
convection now near KMIE has led to a decrease in coverage for the
time being. This is temporary and as additional storms across
eastern Illinois press east into the late afternoon... potential for
outflow boundaries and an increase in instability will likely see an
uptick in scattered coverage that will extend into early evening.
These storms will largely remain subsevere with torrential rainfall
and lightning as the primary hazards...but cannot rule out stronger
winds with any collapsing downdrafts.

Focus then shifts to convection currently becoming better organized
over western Illinois. Hi-res guidance has maintained a steady
signal in tracking these storms into the Wabash Valley later this
evening and perhaps further east across the northern half of the
forecast area before diminishing overnight with a subtle increase in
850mb flow . There is a nonzero risk for damaging winds later this
evening focused mainly over the northern Wabash Valley and will need
to monitor.

The greater impact from the convection though is likely to play a
role in how convective development unfolds on Sunday as a remnant
outflow boundary from the storms is poised to set up somewhere
across the forecast area. Current indications at the moment are that
this will be in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor and could aid in
storms developing quickly by early afternoon and potentially with
greater coverage than what we have seen today. Westerly 850mb flow
would support sluggish movement to storms with a backbuilding
component adding to the PWATs in excess of 2 inches that strongly
suggest torrential rainfall and localized flooding as front and
center concerns again. Model soundings show gusty winds with
collapsing downdrafts as another threat as well.

Have elected to let the Heat Advisory across the southern half of
the forecast area go ahead and expire at 00Z this evening with no
extension into Sunday. Peak heat indices will be below criteria
though potential is there for some locations across southern
portions of central Indiana to make it into the low 100s. The
combination of expected convective and cloud coverage however lowers
confidence on more widespread advisory level heat indices being met.
With the expansion of upper ridging for Monday and Tuesday a return
to heat headlines will likely be needed. This will be discussed
further in the Long Term section below.

Temps...another night with lows int he mid to upper 70s is expected
for tonight. Highs Sunday are likely to be a couple degrees lower
than Friday and today owing to the expectation of increased coverage
of convection and clouds. Upper 80s to around 90 are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The deep upper level ridging will flex northward to begin the
workweek with the core of the ridge settling across the Missouri and
mid Mississippi Valleys by Tuesday. This will cause a renewed surge
of hot and exceptionally humid conditions through the first part of
the week while limiting convection to diurnally driven isolated
activity. A strong upper level low will dive southeast from James
Bay into the Canadian Maritimes during the second half of the week
forcing a retrograde to the ridge back into the High Plains.
Ultimately this will aid in sending a cold front through the Ohio
Valley by Thursday night with increased convective threats Wednesday
and Thursday...but more importantly will bring an end to this
stretch of heat and humidity with a dry and pleasant airmass
poised to settle in to open August.

Sunday Night Through Thursday

Rising mid level heights as the ridge builds north will lead to the
reestablishment of a cap while deeper forcing and the remnant
frontal boundary shift well north into the Great Lakes. Isolated
diurnal convection will be a possibility focused during the
afternoon and evening Monday and possibly Tuesday but the presence
of the cap and warmer air aloft will mitigate more substantial
coverage. Storms will produce torrential rainfall and locally
damaging winds from collapsing downbursts cannot be ruled out with
stronger cells.

As the ridging begins to flatten and retrograde by midweek...a cold
front to the north will steadily drop south into the region. While
some timing differences remain within the extended model guidance...
a more pronounced threat for convection and possibly a more
organized risk for severe weather will impact the region first
Wednesday afternoon and night across the northern half of the
forecast area gradually transitioning south Thursday. Damaging
winds are again likely to be the primary concern based on model
soundings with torrential rainfall and localized flooding as well
with PWATs at or just above 2 inches pooling immediately ahead of
the front.

Additional heat headlines are virtually a necessity for Monday and
Tuesday as peak heat indices will be in the 105 to 110 degree range.
May need headlines for part of the area Wednesday as well. For now
will be messaging heavily via the HWO and social media with
expectation of issuance of new headlines by Sunday afternoon at the
latest.

Thursday Night through Saturday

Lingering storms are possible into early Friday but the frontal
boundary should clear the Ohio River and continue south away from
the region on Friday. As mentioned above...the passage of the
boundary will take the oppressive airmass that has been over the
region since earlier this week with it...replacing with a
cooler...drier and much more pleasant airmass as low level flow
transitions to northerly as large high pressure settles across the
Great Lakes. There is growing confidence in temperatures likely to
be the coolest we have experienced over much of the area since the
second week of June with upper 70s and lower 80s expected. Lows may
drop into the mid and upper 50s as well for Friday and Saturday
mornings. For reference...Indianapolis has not seen a low
temperature below 60 degrees since June 11. To put it mildly... we
will be opening on August on an absolutely spectacular note.

Return flow as the high moves east by early in the first week of
August will bring temperatures back to near normal levels in the 80s
with the potential for an increase in scattered convection as well.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Impacts:

- Low chances and low confidence for TSRA development overnight.
- Scattered convection this afternoon and evening, dissipating 01Z-
03Z

Discussion:

Again, very limited change in the overall air mass and weather
situation across Central Indiana. Early morning convection found
over Illinois is expected to drift east, but weaken upon approach.
Confidence is low at the moment if these will impact Central Indiana.

As we have seen the past few days, daily diurnal heating will lead
to thunderstorm development across Central Indiana mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. Little overall change remains within
the column, as it continues to show steep lapse rates, abundant CAPE
and high pwats.

Confidence is high for more showers and storms today, but confidence
is low for specific timing and locations. Thus a large window of
prob30 has been used for now. Any TSRA that does strike a TAF site
may produce brief MVFR to IFR conditions.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Puma